Insights from Brussels - The EU is torn between East and West
When I had my first week at the VNB office in mid-January, the atmosphere in the EU quarter in Brussels was tense. Once again, the reason was Donald Trump. This was the week when the tension over Greenland reached a (temporary?) climax.
In the wake of the Greenland crisis, European leaders’ rhetoric about independence has turned sour. Both Friedrich Merz and Keir Starmer spoke of “strategic autonomy” in their speeches at the Munich Security Conference, a term previously used only by the French. Already in December, Merz declared in another speech in the same city, at the Bavarian sister party CSU, that “we are witnessing a fundamental change in the transatlantic relationship”. The decades of Pax Americana are effectively over, the chancellor told his own people: “ The Americans defend their interests with great toughness, and there is no other possible response from our side than for us to defend our interests too ”. The change in mood was summed up by Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever, who declared in Davos that: “Being a happy vassal is one thing. Being an unhappy slave is something else entirely” .
Political positions that were previously set in stone are now in flux. Lifelong Atlanticists are openly expressing their doubts about NATO's future, and staunch supporters of free trade are airing thoughts about new customs walls. Why?
The EU is in a triple squeeze between East and West . The squeeze is military . Russian aggression in the East has not only led to a strong political desire for increased European defense capabilities. The fear that US support for Ukraine will fall away also limits Europeans' political freedom of action vis-à-vis Donald Trump on other issues. Furthermore, the squeeze is about energy . The EU is a major importer of energy, and high energy prices are still considered a major challenge to the competitiveness of European industry and business. Although Norway remains the EU's largest supplier, the painful work of freeing itself from Russian gas has increased its dependence on expensive LNG from the US . Finally, the EU is also in a technology squeeze . The large IT companies are securing a dominant role for the US in the AI revolution, creating new European dependence. At the same time, parts of European industry are experiencing a "China shock" . China is investing heavily in cars and green technology, where Europe also has strong industrial interests. According to an estimate from EY, 120,000 jobs in German industry disappeared last year alone, and trade tensions are increasing between Germany and China .
Reducing these dependencies is now a central priority for EU leaders. It is not for nothing that the European Commission's work programme for 2026 was called "Europe's independence moment" . "In a world characterised by imperial ambitions and imperial wars, a world where dependencies are mercilessly used as weapons, a new Europe must emerge," said Ursula von der Leyen when the programme was presented in the autumn. However, there is little evidence that the "moment of independence" will actually be a moment. Instead, it is about difficult processes that will characterise the EU and Europe for many years to come.
That the moment can last for years is underlined by the many debates and test balloons around defense and security. The more cautious voices emphasize that operational cooperation with the United States will continue largely unaffected by the political tensions. That was the message, for example, when I recently heard the chairman of the EU Military Committee, General Sean Clancy, begin a meeting at the European Policy Center (EPC) think tank . Establishing a “strong and self-sustaining European pillar” in NATO is also the main track of European leaders. That does not prevent more radical new thinking, also from the top of the EU system. In a speech in Sweden in January, Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius floated the idea of a European Security Council and an EU army of 100,000 soldiers. Although the idea was later shot down by EU Foreign Affairs Chief Kaja Kallas, there is clearly a green light for brainstorming. Kubilius called for an “intellectual big bang” for new ideas and bold decisions . When the leaders of the conservative European People's Party (EPP) met in Zagreb this month, they decided to launch work to give the EU's mutual defense clause, which states that member states have an obligation to help if one of them is attacked, a more real implementation . This week, two committees in the European Parliament held hearings on institutional issues related to a possible future European defense union .
The energy squeeze seems to have a more obvious solution: the EU will become less dependent on imported energy. Therefore, the major initiatives in renewable energy and green industry launched by the previous European Commission continue. More renewable energy means less dependence and greater strategic autonomy. But in this field there are signs of growing disagreements, and political backlash against climate policy in several member states . The Commission and the majority in Parliament have changed course on several issues, such as green obligations for business and dropping the ban on combustion engines in new cars from 2035 .
Even in the face of the technological and trade policy squeeze, new and innovative ideas are being thought of. In an attempt to create a new balance in trade with China , the EU is proposing a significant system change in the WTO . An advisory body to the French government is proposing a 30 percent tariff on Chinese goods . At the same time, several European countries have initiated measures to reduce their dependence on American Big Tech . By next year , the use of Teams and Zoom in the state apparatus in France will end , in favor of the French alternative Visio. While the EU previously appeared as the foremost opponent of protectionism, it is now rolling out a “Buy European” policy. For example, legislation is being prepared that will give preferences to European-made goods in public procurement.
What does all this mean for West Norway ? Firstly, it means that Norway, not least our region with energy resources and important sea areas, is becoming more interesting for the rest of Europe. Strategically, the Nordic region is not a periphery, but a very important area also for the major powers in Europe and the EU. It is no coincidence that both the President of the EU Council Antonio Costa and Foreign Minister Kaja Kallas have been in Norway in recent weeks. What kind of security policy architecture Europe will have in the future, and Norway's place in it, is of course a fundamentally important topic also for Western Norway.
The new situation is bringing increased attention to issues that are important to our region, such as maritime preparedness and management of the sea areas. The EU is now introducing a new port strategy and new maritime legislation, both of which could have an impact on West Norway The cooperation in the Conference of Peripheral Maritime Regions (CPMR), with the North Sea Commission, in which our county municipalities participate, may receive increased emphasis.
There may also be challenges. The coordination of European energy policy is unlikely to slow down, and as is well known, it is politically controversial in Norway. In addition, the introduction of tariffs on ferroalloys has created concern that Norwegian businesses may find themselves outside the EU's customs walls several times if the trade wars between the major blocs drag on. On the other hand , it now seems to have been clarified that "European" in Buy European also means the EEA countries, so that future laws on preferences for European goods will include Norwegian products.
None of this will take a moment. All the more reason to pay close attention in the months and years to come. West Norway Brussels Office will be the eyes and ears for the region in the EU, and our goal is that the news and analyses we send home will give you a better overview of the major changes that are underway.